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Market Models - Papers and Reports

Page history last edited by Ken Davidian 5 years, 1 month ago

The following are papers and reports using academically accepted models or structures of markets and market behavior as applied to the emerging commercial space industry.

 

The intent of these papers is to be the beginning of a discussion, not the last word. I'd like these topics to be discussed on the basis of previous works so progress can be made in the overall understanding of different perspectives of these topics.

 

You can contribute to this page in the following ways:

 

  • Download, read, and then comment on any of the papers here.
  • Identify new market models or structures that could be applied to the emerging commercial space industry.
  • Use one of the papers below and add to it, by updating the information or going deeper into the analysis or discussion.

 

 

INNOVATION (INDUSTRY CHANGE) MODELS & INDUSTRY STRUCTURE MODELS

 

MARKET SEGMENTS

DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION THEORY

Based on "The Innovator's Dilemma", "The Innovator's Solution" and "Seeing What's Next" by Clayton Christensen

INDUSTRY STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS

Based on Michael Porter's work based in Industrial Organization Economics

 GAME THEORY
PARTS-VALUE NET STRUCTURE
Based on "Co-opetition" by Brandenberger and Nalebuff

MISCELANEOUS

Cats and Dogs of Interest 

SUBORBITAL LAUNCH VEHICLES

NANO- and SMALL-SATS and MICRO-LAUNCHERS

    

ORBITAL LAUNCH VEHICLES

  

ABERNATHY-UTTERBACK INNOVATION MODEL:  

ON-ORBIT SPACECRAFT (MANNED)

    

MISCELL-ANEOUS TOPICS

  

HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT TRAINING

HUMAN ORBITAL MARKETS

WORKSHOP RESULTS

 

The results of the following workshops are separated from the technical papers table above primarily because the workshop activities focused on process and not on the quality of the final product.  The emphasis might change as the workshops mature and increase in sophistication, but for the time being, these results should be considered to be preliminary and a "good start" for future studies.

 

  • 2010 July 06 Workshop Applying Porter Industry Structural Analysis of Suborbital Launch Vehicles for the ISU Summer Session Program in Strasbourg, France : Here is a CSWiki page I created with the results of a brief (3.5hr) workshop I ran on July 16 at the International Space University's 2010 Space Studies Program (formerly the "Summer Session Program) of an Industry Structural Analysis of the "Space Tourism" market: 2010-07-16 ISU SSP10 ISA Workshop   

  • 2011 October 26-27 Emerging Space Industry Leaders (ESIL-01) Workshop at the University of Colorado at Boulder : Here is a CSWiki page I created for the entire workshop, including presentations and support materials in which Porter's Industry Structural Analysis of three far-term markets was applied:

 

MISCELLANEOUS

  • July 2012: 2012-07 ESPI Space and the Processes of Innovation.pdf

    • This report [by the European Space Policy Institute, ESPI] starts out by making the case for the recognition of innovation economics as an economic paradigm. Today, innovation is a dynamic term of strategic importance in industrial policy and management. The introductory chapter of the report explores the major concepts and authors in the academic literature surrounding innovation and innovation economics. Schumpeter’s concept of creative destruction shows that, by its very nature, innovation should not be touted as a universal benefit but as a complex, disruptive force creating opportunities and challenges to actors in the economic system. In the short term, innovation creates winners and losers. In the long run it is the engine of economic growth, upgrading quality of life and technological progress. Drucker emphasises the need of being mindful of human psychology and the individuals behind the inventions when spurring innovation, indicating that – despite its complex character – innovation is something that can be stimulated and fostered when managed well. (from the Executive Summary)

  • October 2012: Bertrand de Hauteclocque Space Strategy Paper

  • February 14, 2012: Commercial Space Industry Analysis Approach

    • Here's a presentation I gave at the AIAA Commercial Space Group meeting, held at the Lockheed-Martin Global Vision Center, describing the background to my approach of strategic industry analysis and management... 2012.02.14 CS Industry Studies.ppt

  • March 2011: Reusable Suborbital Market Characterization Prepared by The Tauri Group for Space Florida

  • Here's a great discussion by my friend, Marc Millis. When I saw the presentation of this paper, I saw a lot of parallels with Christensen's Disruption Theory (above) although Marc had not incorporated any of the DT concepts into his discussion.
    IAC-10.E6.1.12 History Hints at Decentralization FINAL.pdf

Comments (2)

Ken Davidian said

at 7:54 pm on Apr 21, 2011

Here's a message (broken into 2 parts to accommodate the 2000 character limit) I got from my cousin who is currently an Econ Ph.D. student. He was pointing me to Market Design theory... verrrrry interesting... Here's Part 1 of the message:

Hey Ken,

Sorry about taking so long to respond. I've been trying to catch up with the work so I didn't get around to checking all my facebook messages until now.

That's a really nice Kindle wiki you have set up. Very well organized. If I ever get around to reading again I might make one like that :)

I'm having a bit of trouble finding nontechnical introductions to mechanism/market design unfortunately. The fields are relatively new so it's still mostly (highly technical) journal articles. For an idea of what the fields are about and some of the limitations at least, you can check out the Nobel lectures by Hurwicz, Meyerson, and Maskin. Of the three, I think Hurwicz (the first) does the best job of explaining the philosophy and historical background of mechanism design (it's a very old question with a new set of tools) without getting bogged down in the formalism.

http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2007/hurwicz_lecture.pdf
http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2007/myerson_lecture.pdf
http://sss.ias.edu/files/papers/econpaper81.pdf

In terms of the rigorous background, Meyerson's scientific background from the Nobel in 2007 is loaded with more key words than you can shake a stick at:

http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2007/ecoadv07.pdf

Ken Davidian said

at 7:54 pm on Apr 21, 2011

And here's Part 2...


I'm not sure how helpful the technical notes will be without some background in formal game theory though. Speaking of which, game theory is a wonderful tool (tailor-made even) for questions like the ones you are dealing with--and the language that mechanism and market design are discussed in. There are a number of wonderful if technical introductions to the subject, but a non-technical and (I'm told) thoroughly intuitive introduction is

http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Strategically-Competitive-Business-Politics/dp/0393310353/ref=pd_bxgy_b_text_c

I had a few non-technical books recommended to me, but in all candor I chose that one from the recommendations because of who the authors are. Dixit especially is a major figure in applied game theoretic research, so I assume he will do a good job introducing the key ideas.

If you are ever interested in a more technical introduction (complete with lots and lots of at first cumbersome notation!) I have a bit more experience with those books. Some do a good job of getting the intuition across, most don't. The ones that do require a lot of problem solving to really understand what they are saying. It's a very nice field with lots of interesting results though.

Thanks and best wishes,
Chris

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