Predictability of Business

Introduction

 

I had an idea for this page that encompasses a lot of different threads, but this is the starting point. Maybe at some point in the future this page will be split up into separate pages, one for each major heading below, but for now, it's a single page.

 

The "inspiration" for this page is Jeff Greason's quote (which I'm tempted to call the "Greason Theory of Greed" and which is paraphrased here): "I'm not sure if greed is good or bad, but it's predictable."

• Note: I'm pretty confident in saying that modern-day society in the United States puts a very negative value judgement on the word 'greed.' Heck, a lot of people would definitely identify it as one of the "seven deadly sins". Therefore, I'd argue that 'greed' definitely does have a negative connotation. That's why I'm going to rework this page to focus on the strength that, when taken to an extreme, becomes greed. My initial inclination is to identify that strength as 'drive' or 'ambition'.

 

The idea that Jeff is proposing is worthwhile from many different perspectives, but this page is to collect links and stories associated with the questions upon which this quote has started me pondering.

 

• What is the definition of "greed"? Does it only pertain to the acquisition of wealth? How about getting what you want for less? Is that greed? Is a negative reaction after not winning a contract a side-effect of greed? Is greed bad? When can greed be considered good? Isn't it a matter of perspective?
• What are the predictable outcomes of greed? Being able to predict the future is a powerful thing, and if we can predict behavior driven by greed, what would that behavior be? How can this predictive power be used for 'good'? (I know... there's another whole can of worms right there.)
• What are the examples (in the commercial space industry) where greed has manifested itself? Despite calls for the opposite, we have already seen many public fueds and altercations between the NewSpace and traditional space communities, as well as within the NewSpace industry itself, and I'm sure we'll see more. Are these the result of greed?

 

These, and other topics that will certainly be identified over time, comprise the major sections of this page. Please feel free to contribute to the definition and construction of these sections.

 

I have not yet developed these concepts beyond making space for them in this wiki, but I hope to develop them (with your help, of course!) over the coming days and months.

 

Thanks!

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The Definition of "Business Predictability"

 

The intent of this section is to define what is at the root of business predictability (the extreme ambition that becomes greed).

 

• Mirriam-Webster: "a selfish and excessive desire for more of something (as money) than is needed."
• From the Wikipedia: Greed page: "the self-serving desire for the pursuit of money, wealth, power, food, or other possessions, especially when this denies the same goods to others. It is generally considered a vice, and is one of the seven deadly sins in Catholicism."

 

Greed-Related Questions

• Is it possible that greed can be good? Does it conform to the "strength-weakness irony"? (The irony is that "any strength, when taken to an extreme, becomes a weakness.")

 

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Predictable Outcomes of Business

 

Identifying what the predictable outcomes of greed are is difficult for many reasons. Below are some ideas with the off-shoot questions that they inevitably generate.

 

1. Under construction...

 

 

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Examples of Business Predictability (?)

 

• 2004 Sometime before May: SpaceX Opposes NASA's Sole-Source Contract Award to Kistler
  • SpaceX's Side of the Story: Elon's Testimony to Congress (in section 3, entitled "Ensure Fairness in Contracting")

 

• 2005 October 19: SpaceX Sues ULA
  • "SpaceX Sues Lock-Mart and Boeing", SpaceFlightNow.com, by Chris Bergin
  • Questions
    • Is this a reliably predictable outcome of excessive ambition?
    • In this situation, what were the acts of excessive ambition? Were there more than one?
    • In this situation, who's the excessively ambitious party? Were there more than one?

 

• 2007 February 13: Bragging Rights for the SpaceShipOne Propulsion System
  • "In Race to Take Tourists Into Orbit, Partners Split, Spar", Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
  • Questions
    • Is the desire for rightful attribution a reliably predictable outcome of excessive ambition?

 

• 2009 January 15: PlanetSpace (partnered with Boeing, Lockheed-Martin, & ATK) Protest the NASA CRS Contract Award

  • PlanetSpace Has Filed With the GAO a Protest to the Selection Decision of NASA Under the ISS Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) Competition
  • Check out these comments from Clark Lindsey's HobbySpace.com website
  • Questions
    • Is a contract protest by the proposers that were not selected a reliably predictable outcome of excessive ambition?
    • Does PlanetSpace have a leg to stand on, seeing as how they've never even had a test flight of any of their vehicles?

 

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